Madrid finalists Rafael Nadal and Dominic Thiem have already enjoyed hugely successful clay-court seasons. While they could use some additional rest before the French Open, cooler heads will prevail and both will almost certainly suit up for this week’s Rome Masters. Clay, of course, is by far the favorite surface of both players and neither one can afford to bypass another opportunity to rack up 1000 points. If Nadal wins Madrid, Rome, and Roland Garros, he would have an almost insurmountable lead in the race to year-end No. 1. If Thiem turns in another big result, he would clinch a top eight seed for both the French Open and Wimbledon and remain on course for a second straight World Tour Finals appearance.
Nadal and Thiem are joined in another strong Masters 1000 field by Andy Murray, Novak Djokovic, Stan Wawrinka, David Goffin, and Juan Martin Del Potro.
Internazionali BNL d’Italia
Where: Rome, Italy
Surface: Clay
Points: 1000
Prize money: 4,273,775 Euros
Top seed: Andy Murray
Defending champion: Andy Murray
Draw analysis: It’s not often that a player who is the No. 1 seed and defending champion of a tournament can be a relative afterthought going into it, but that may be the case with Murray. The top-ranked Scot is just 16-6 this season, 4-4 in his last eight matches, and 4-3 on clay. He may not last long in Rome, either. Murray has to open against Italy’s own Fabio Fognini and a potential showdown with an in-form Alexander Zverev looms in round three. The rest of Murray’s quarter is underwhelming, so this is a big opportunity for Fognini or Zverev.
An intriguing first-rounder to watch in the top section pits 39-year-old Tommy Haas against 38-year-old Ivo Karlovic.
Nadal, who could also kick off his campaign against an Italian (Andreas Seppi), has a similarly tough draw. The Spaniard is on a collision course with Jack Sock for the last 16 and Thiem—arguably the second best clay-courter in the world right now—is a likely quarterfinal foe. Sock has what should be a difficult opening date with Diego Schwartzman on his hands, while a Thiem vs. Pablo Cuevas second-round contest would be a rematch of the Madrid semifinals.
A Nadal-Djokovic half of the draw is becoming a familiar sight and that is once again the case in Rome, where they could go head-to-head in another semifinal on the heels of Nadal’s 6-2, 6-4 Madrid victory. If nothing else, a slumping Djokovic is at least well-rested and should be able to coast through his Rome opener against either a qualifier or Italian wild card Gianluca Mager. Nick Kyrgios is a possible third-round opponent, but the Australian is dealing with some injury concerns so a confident Pablo Carreno Busta may be more likely to advance. Carreno Busta, a recent title winner in Estoril, lost to Djokovic 6-4 in the third in Monte-Carlo.
In the second-ranked Serb’s section, the Grigor Dimitrov-Juan Martin Del Potro winner could go a long way because the other top eight seed in that quarter is an injured Kei Nishikori.
Like Djokovic, Wawrinka is one-time French Open champion who is trying to find some form heading into the season’s second slam. The third-ranked Swiss has struggled since finishing runner-up to Roger Federer in Indian Wells and he is coming off a second-round Madrid exit at the hands of good friend Benoit Paire. As luck would have it, Wawrinka’s Rome opener could also come against none other than Paire. An overall soft section of the bracket should have a red-hot Goffin poised for yet another impressive clay-court showing.
First-round upset alert: Juan Martin Del Potro over (10) Grigor Dimitrov. In an effort to keep himself healthy and also due to the death of his grandfather, Del Potro has played only one clay-court match this spring (he beat Yuichi Sugita in Estoril and then withdrew). Dimitrov, meanwhile, has cooled off since starting the season 16-1 and he may have a tough time erasing the memory of having squandered five match points against Thiem in the Madrid third round. Moreover, the Bulgarian is a hopeless 0-4 in the head-to-head series against Del Potro and 1-8 in total sets.
Hot: Rafael Nadal, Dominic Thiem, David Goffin, Jack Sock, Alexander Zverev, Pablo Carreno Busta, Albert Ramos-Vinolas, Pablo Cuevas, Diego Schwartzman, Donald Young
Cold: Andy Murray, Novak Djokovic, John Isner, Mischa Zverev, Ivo Karlovic, Tommy Haas, Florian Mayer, Marcos Baghdatis, Bernard Tomic, David Ferrer, Tommy Robredo
Quarterfinal predictions: Alexander Zverev over Tomas Berdych, David Goffin over Albert Ramos-Vinolas, Rafael Nadal over Lucas Pouille, and Pablo Carreno Busta over Juan Martin Del Potro
Semifinals: Goffin over Zverev and Nadal over Carreno Busta
Final: Nadal over Goffin
Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!
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