Following a week of 250-point tournaments, the stars are back on court for the second of this year’s three clay-court Masters 1000 events. Rafael Nadal is off to a perfect 10-0 start on the red stuff in 2017, with No. 10 titles in both Monte-Carlo and Barcelona. He is going for “only” his fifth title in Madrid, where he is joined in strong field by Andy Murray, Novak Djokovic, and Stan Wawrinka, just to name a few. Roger Federer, of course, is still taking a break and will do so at least until the French Open.
Mutua Madrid Open
Where: Madrid, Spain
Surface: Clay
Points: 1000
Prize money: 5,439,350 Euros
Top seed: Andy Murray
Defending champion: Novak Djokovic
Draw analysis: How’s this for a potential path to the final? Fabio Fognini, Nick Kyrgios, Milos Raonic, and Djokovic. That is what Nadal may have in front of him after the draw was revealed on Friday. And that road could be even tougher in high altitude, where Kyrgios and Raonic should benefit. The fifth-ranked Spaniard will open against either Fognini or Joao Sousa before possibly running into Kyrgios in the third round and Raonic in the quarters. Raonic, though, may have his hands full with David Goffin in the last 16.
Perhaps nobody enjoyed Friday’s draw ceremony more than Djokovic, and that is just what the doctor ordered for the world No. 2 after he split from his entire team—including coach Marian Vajda—earlier in the day. In the softest quarter of the bracket by far, Djokovic awaits what should be a routine opener against Nicolas Almagro or Tommy Robredo and his nearest seeds are Gael Monfils, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, and Kei Nishikori. Both Tsonga and Monfils have played only one match since Indian Wells and Nishikori has not taken the court since Miami.
At the top of draw, Murray could get another shot at Dominic Thiem in the quarterfinals. They recently faced each other in the Barcelona semis, with Thiem prevailing 6-2, 3-6, 6-4. Grigor Dimitrov, Roberto Bautista Agut, Richard Gasquet, or Budapest champion Lucas Pouille may have something to say about preventing another Murray-Thiem showdown.
In section two, the pair of first-round bye recipients may not last long in Madrid. Wawrinka’s opener will likely come against an in-form Pablo Carreno Busta, while Marin Cilic awaits either Alexander Zverev or Fernando Verdasco. The semifinal spot from this quarter appears to be totally up for grabs, and other serious contenders include Jack Sock, Tomas Berdych, and Pablo Cuevas.
First-round upset alert: Gilles Simon over (15) Gael Monfils. These two Frenchmen famously—or more like “infamously”—played a 71-ball rally against each other at the 2013 Australian Open. That point did not end well for Monfils and neither has much else when he has been forced to go up against Simon. The head-to-head series stands at 6-1 in favor of Simon, who won that Aussie Open marathon 8-6 in the fifth and also beat Monfils 6-4, 3-6, 6-0 in their only previous clay-court encounter (2011 Hamburg). Monfils had been out since Indian Wells with an Achilles’ injury until he returned in Munich, where he lost his opener in straight sets to Hyeon Chung.
Hot: Rafael Nadal, Jack Sock, David Goffin, Pablo Carreno Busta, Alexander Zverev, Albert Ramos-Vinolas, Diego Schwartzman
Cold: Andy Murray, Novak Djokovic, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Gael Monfils, Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, Mischa Zverev, Ivo Karlovic, Tommy Haas, Florian Mayer, Marcos Baghdatis, Bernard Tomic, David Ferrer, Tommy Robredo
Quarterfinal predictions: Dominic Thiem over Andy Murray, Jack Sock over Marin Cilic, Rafael Nadal over David Goffin, and Albert Ramos-Vinolas over Gilles Simon
Semifinals: Thiem over Sock and Nadal over Ramos-Vinolas
Final: Nadal over Thiem
Comments and your own predictions are appreciated!
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