With some players in unusually great form, others at alarmingly poor levels, and still more either injured or simply inactive, the rankings have not come close to telling the ATP’s true story at any point this season. As such, draws have been wildly skewed on a consistent basis.
Although this one is not as lopsided as, say, Indian Wells was, the French Open is no exception to the recent rule. The oddsmakers’ top three French Open favorites—Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, and Dominic Thiem—all find themselves in the bottom half of the draw. Djokovic’s section is especially difficult, also being the proud home of Thiem and David Goffin.
Murray’s quarter
Murray is the No. 1 player in the world and has to be considered the favorite to emerge from his section of the draw, but he may not be the trendy pick. That distinction could belong to Alexander Zverev, who has been outstanding the whole way this season and is coming off the biggest title of his career at the Rome Masters. Other contenders in this relatively up-for-grabs quarter are Kei Nishikori, Tomas Berdych, Pablo Cuevas, and—if he is close to 100 percent—Juan Martin Del Potro.
Although Murray and Zverev are on a collision course for the quarterfinals, neither one will have an easy time advancing that far. The top-seeded Scot opens with solid clay-courter Andrey Kuznetsov in round one, would likely meet Martin Klizan after that, and could run into Del Potro in the last 32. Zverev has to begin his campaign against Fernando Verdasco, while Pablo Cuevas—who sent one of the shots of the year past the German in Madrid—is a potential third-round adversary.
Best first-round matchup – (9) Alexander Zverev vs. Fernando Verdasco
This may not be the section’s most competitive contest unless Verdasco gets it together in a hurry, but it is certainly the most intriguing of the entire first round. A red-hot Zverev recently captured the Rome title, and in a relatively soft top half of the draw there is no telling how far he could go in Paris. Although Verdasco is not in his best form at the moment, he is no stranger to the opening-round upset. The Spaniard sent countryman Rafael Nadal packing early from the 2016 Australian Open following a 7-6(6), 4-6, 3-6, 7-6(4), 6-2 stunner.
Best potential second-round matchup – Karen Khachanov vs. (13) Tomas Berdych
Best potential third-round matchup – (1) Andy Murray vs. (29) Juan Martin Del Potro
Possible surprises – Murray is slumping, Nishikori is doing the same on a smaller scale, and Del Potro is once again dealing with injuries. No seed in the top quarter—not even Zverev—is entirely reliable. Klizan is prone to catching fire at any moment and he is due to make a big run on clay, which should be his best surface even though that has not always been the case in the past. Fellow unseeded floater Hyeon Chung has played well this spring. His nearest seeds are Sam Querrey (first round) and Nishikori (third round), which is not necessarily an easy draw but also far from impossible.
Wawrinka’s quarter
The entire top half of the bracket is wide open, and Wawrinka’s section is especially so. While the talent level is absolutely off the charts in this part of the draw, none of that talent is being put to good use at the moment. Consider the names here: Wawrinka, Marin Cilic, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Gael Monfils, Richard Gasquet, Nick Kyrgios, Fabio Fognini, and Dustin Brown. That’s two Grand Slam champions, one slam finalist, others would could be or should be slam finalists…and Dustin Brown.
One of those aforementioned players has to pick up the pace for the French Open, right? The question is which one will it be. Gasquet made a run to the quarterfinals last spring and has reached at least the fourth round in five of his last six appearances, but he has played only three matches since late February due to appendicitis. Monfils is an impressive 28-10 lifetime at Roland Garros and is a former semifinalist (2008), but he missed the tournament last year and once again has physical issues. Cilic, Tsonga, and Kyrgios have never been at their best on clay. As such, this should be Wawrinka’s time to shine again—and he warmed up nicely for the upcoming fortnight by advancing to the Geneva final.
Best first-round matchup — Dustin Brown vs. (15) Gael Monfils
Monfils made a debut appearance in the World Tour Finals last year, but he has been an injury-plagued disaster this season ever since losing to Nadal in the Australian Open fourth round. Even Monfils must admit that he has no real chance of doing anything at Roland Garros. As such, the Frenchman may be in exhibition mode to even more significant extent than usual—and that’s saying a lot. With Brown on the other side of the net, no matchup in tennis has greater potential for pure entertainment. Expect the highlight reel (and the lowlight reel, for that matter) to be extensive.
Best potential second-round matchup – (30) David Ferrer vs. Feliciano Lopez
Best potential third-round matchup – (12) Jo-Wilfried Tsonga vs. (18) Nick Kyrgios
Possible surprises — Identify the most vulnerable of this seeded contingent and you will find the floaters most likely to cause a stir in Paris. Monfils seems to be the most injured, Kyrgios is probably the least motivated (playing poorly, recent death in the family, grass season on the horizon), and Ferrer is undoubtedly playing the worst. Brown has a chance to reach at least the third round, while Philipp Kohlschreiber and Feliciano Lopez could reach the second week if they get through difficult openers (against Kyrgios and Bjorn Fratengelo, respectively).
Nadal’s quarter
The bottom half of the draw is far tougher with Nadal, Djokovic, Thiem, and Goffin all down there, but Nadal does not have to worry about any of those other three until at least the semifinals. His own quarter, on the other hand, should give the nine-time champion nothing more than a routine trip to the semis. Nadal’s road begins with Benoit Paire and will likely be followed by Robin Haase, Gilles Simon (or Viktor Troicki), Jack Sock (or Roberto Bautista Agut), and then either Milos Raonic, Grigor Dimitrov, or Pablo Carreno Busta.
Like the Spaniard, fifth-seeded Milos Raonic—even on clay—should enjoy an easy path to the fourth round. The other two sections in this quarter, however, could deliver some outstanding matches. Potential third-rounders include Dimitrov vs. Carreno Busta and Sock vs. Bautista Agut. Sock, though, has the toughest road of those four men with Jiri Vesely in the opening round and possibly an in-form Aljaz Bedene in the second.
Best first-round matchup — (14) Jack Sock vs. Jiri Vesely
Again?!?! Yes, Sock and Vesely will be facing each other for the third time this season and for the third time this spring. Sock has won each of their previous encounters to improve to 3-0 lifetime in the ATP-level head-to-head series, but he needed a third-set tiebreaker before getting the job done on the red clay of Rome. It would be in Vesely’s best interest to avoid tiebreakers, because in two such situations against Sock he has won a grand total of one point—compared to Sock’s 14.
Best potential second-round matchup – (31) Gilles Simon vs. Viktor Troicki
Best potential third-round matchup – (20) Pablo Carreno Busta vs. (11) Grigor Dimitrov
Possible surprises — Unless something unforeseen befalls Nadal (like it did last year at Roland Garros), everyone else is playing for second, third, and fourth place here. With neither Raonic nor Dimitrov at their best on the red stuff, a confident Carreno Busta has a great chance of becoming Nadal’s foe in what would be the lesser-heralded Spaniard’s first-ever Grand Slam quarterfinal. Bedene is an amazing 27-4 in his last 31 matches (qualifying and Challengers included), so he has an outside chance of setting up a fourth-round date with Nadal.
Djokovic’s quarter
Welcome to the Group of Death. It’s not exactly loaded from top to bottom like the Nadal-Federer-Del Potro-Kyrgios-Zverev quarter in Indian Wells, but the three-horse race between Djokovic, Thiem, and Goffin could be more exciting than a Belmont Stakes with a Triple Crown contender. Although the rest of the section is relatively uninspiring, Monte-Carlo runner-up Albert Ramos-Vinolas, Budapest champion Lucas Pouille, Marrakech winner Borna Coric, and Houston champ Steve Johnson will have hopes of crashing the party.
This in an absolute nightmare draw for Thiem, who may have to face good friend and familiar foe Goffin in the fourth round before a quarterfinal showdown with Djokovic. The seventh-ranked Austrian is 0-5 lifetime against Djokovic and 1-11 in total sets, with his only victorious set ending 12-10 in a tiebreaker and all 11 of his set losses being 6-4 or worse. Djokovic is on the easier side of this quarter but could be troubled by Diego Schwartzman in the third round and either Ramos-Vinolas or Pouille in the last 16.
Best first-round matchup — (Q) Paul-Henri Mathieu vs. (10) David Goffin
Not too much unlike Zverev vs. Verdasco, this is unlikely to be the most competitive first-round affair. But the atmosphere will be nothing short of a circus. Not only is Mathieu a well-respected Frenchman, but he is also playing in his final French Open. Moreover, he was controversially denied a main-draw wild card and had to play his way in—which he successfully did. That will only make his fan support even more rabid. Speaking of the fans, this is as close to a home tournament as it can possibly get for Goffin. The Belgians were out in force, and extremely loud, throughout their man’s run to the quarterfinals in 2016.
Best potential second-round matchup – Borna Coric vs. (25) Steve Johnson
Best potential third-round matchup – (16) Lucas Pouille vs. (19) Albert Ramos-Vinolas
Possible surprises — Rarely is Djokovic more vulnerable than anyone else near him in draws, but with both Thiem and Goffin in the other half of this section, there is not much room for surprise in that pod. Anything other than a Thiem-Goffin fourth-rounder would be a considerable shock. But if the second-ranked Serb’s struggles continue, Ramos-Vinolas could emerge as a quarterfinal opponent for either Thiem or Goffin.
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